There are hundreds of football tomes on the market documenting the quirks and foibles of the beautiful game. What there isn't a glut of are titles that explain the phenomena of the game using logic, stats and reason, whilst at the same time remaining readable and engaging. Why England Lose is that book.
Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymanski have put together a bunch of intriguing football questions - Why do England lose? Are blonde players more likely to get scouted? Where should you hit a penalty kick? - and answer them using evidence and common sense.
We found it all rather addictive, so when the chaps said we could nick a few bits to illustrate what we mean, it was a happy and slightly geeky moment for all involved.
A perfectly decent team
'Any mathematician would say it's absurd to expect England to win the World Cup. England win two-thirds of their matches. To be precise, from 1970-2007 they played 411, won 217, drew 120 and lost 74. If we treat a draw as half a win, this translates into a winning percentage of 67.4%. If we then break this down into seven equal periods of just under four years each, England's winning percentage has never fallen below 62% or risen above 70%. In other words, their performance is very constant.
Yes, these statistics conceal some ghastly mishaps (Poland at Wembley in 1973, the 'Turnip' front page in 1993, Phil Neville against Romania in 2000) as well as some highs (John Barnes slaloming though the Brazilian defence in 1984, revenge on Holland at Euro 96, the 5-1 in Munich), but the statistics tell us that the difference between anguish and euphoria is a few percentage points.
Every time that England have qualified for a World Cup since 1982, they have reached at least the last 16. But even at that stage of the tournament, when hysteria grips the nation, England's chances of winning remain modest. If the probability of reaching the quarter-final from the second round is theoretically 66 per cent [England's win ratio, as discussed above - Ed], your chance of getting to the semi-final is 66% x 66% = 44%; your chance of making it to the final is 66% x 44% = 30%; and your chance of winning is 66% x 30% = 20%. In fact, at this stage of the tournament England's chances of winning any game are rather lower than 66%, as this is the phase when they meet sides like Germany and Argentina.'
Why There Are Too Many Englishmen in the Premier League
'When pundits gather to explain why England lose, their favourite scapegoat of the moment is imports: the hundreds of foreigners who play in the Premier League. Here is Steven Gerrard speaking before England lost to Croatia and failed to qualify for Euro 2008: 'I think there is a risk of too many foreign players coming over, which would affect our national team eventually if it hasn't already. It is important we keep producing players.'
Imagine for a moment that [UEFA President] Michel Platini somehow managed to suspend EU law, and force English football clubs to discriminate against players from other EU countries. If that happened Platini and Gerrard would be disappointed. If inferior English players were handed places in Premier League teams, they would have little incentive to improve.
You could argue that English players accounted for 'only' 37 per cent of playing time in Premier League. Or you could argue that they account for a massive 37 per cent of playing time, more than any other nationality in what is now the world's toughest league.
England can have an excellent league or it can have an English league, but it can't have both. Given the choice, fans seem to prefer excellence. In that sense, they are typical consumers. If you try to substitute imports, then, at least at first, consumers have to put up with worse products. They generally don't like that.'
How English Football Drives Out the Middle Classes
'The problem of English football is what happens before our best players reach the Premier League. The Englishmen who make it to the top are drawn very largely from one single and shrinking social group: the traditional working class. The country's middle classes are mostly barred from professional football. That holds back the national team. Of a recent group of 34 England players only five came from 'middle-class' origins. Nowadays over 70% of Britons stay in school after 16, and over 40% enter higher education. More and more this is a middle-class nation. Yet because football recruits over-whelmingly from the traditional working class, it excludes and ever-growing swathe of the population. That must put a brake on the England team.'
To order a copy of Why England Lose just click here!
The stuff above is just the tip of the iceberg, trust us.
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