Professor Bill McGuire

The end of the world is nigh!

Maxim: Hi Bill. How are you?
Professor Bill McGuire: I’m very well considering we’re talking about such a depressing subject!

Maxim: Leads us nicely onto our first question; do you ever find yourself getting a bit bummed out thinking about the extinction of the human race? Or is it just a case of: ‘Oh well, there’s not much we can do about it anyway’?
PBMG: It is depressing at times, especially if you’ve got young kids and particularly in the context of climate change, but I am an optimist I suppose so I don’t spend all my time worrying about it.

Maxim: What are your feelings on global warming? Is it actually us that are making things worse and is there anything we can do to sort things out?
PBMG: I think global warming is just one of these end-of-the-world scenarios that are so topical. Everybody has a vested interest in it. This week attention has been focused on it with the release of Supernatural series five part two, where the end of the world is a key theme. From my point of view, we can look ahead to asteroid impacts and all sorts of other things, but we are facing now, as a race, the greatest threat we’ve ever seen. Climate change is going to be very, very bad unless we do something about it, and the longer we wait the worse it’s going to be.

Maxim: So what’s the most likely scenario? We all know there are loads of asteroids flying around, but would we just get hit by one? Or should we just bust out the lifeboats for some flooding?
PBMG: The thing is we know a lot more about asteroids now because there are a number of sky surveys that track these objects, so of about 1,000 big ones (about 1km or more across), something like 800 more have been identified, so we know they’re not going to hit. To be honest, a 1km asteroid, which is the smallest sized asteroid you’d need to cause global mayhem, only hits every 600,000 years. The fact that climate change is almost certain now to be catastrophic and is with us now, clearly that’s a much, much greater threat.

Maxim: You reckon it’ll be global flooding due to the ice caps melting then?
PBMG: It’s not only my opinion, it’s virtually the entire climate change community on the one hand and on the other, a few spoilers who are, to be absolutely honest, mostly not even climate scientists and for ideological and political reasons want to deny climate change is happening. Or that we’re causing, or that it’s not even a problem, they change their story all the time. But we know more about climate change now than almost any other scientific issue, it’s been immensely closely studied for the past 20 or 30 years, and there’s little doubt we’re going to be able to avoid what’s called “dangerous climate change”. At least a 2 degree Celsius rise globally, and maybe 10 at the poles melting the ice caps eventually.

Maxim: What do you envision for us if that happens? Should we invest in houseboats? Build an ark?
PBMG: I think that’s a bit frivolous! Serious estimates are that half the world be uninhabitable by 2100 if we don’t start to tackle emissions now. Other serious estimates are that there’ll only be 10% of the human population left by the end of the century. I think we need to do more than build arks, we need to act now on cutting emissions. We’re doing, to be honest, absolutely nothing, in terms of the amount of carbon dioxide accumulating in the atmosphere. We’ve got maybe about five years to turn that around, but sadly it doesn’t look as if that’s going to happen because of short termism and greed.

Maxim: What are the main things that people need to do? Is there anything the everyday man (or woman) can do, or is it on the governments to sort out?
PBMG: Things can happen on all different levels from individuals to governments. There’s a lot we can do as individuals and we all know what they are. I don’t want to preach to people but we know that driving a car one mile down the road to buy goods that have been transported from China is not a good idea for the planet, but we still do it. The leads have to be taken by the governments and if they don’t take those leads then we should chuck them out.

Maxim: You said that there may only be 10% of the population left by the end of the century, how long do you think we’d be able to sustain that? Would we be our own end so to speak?
PBMG: Assuming that happens as suggested by James Lovelock, who is one of the eminent and perceptive scientists around today, that 10% still amounts to something like 600 million people, not just a few million people left on the planet. But to be honest, on a planet where most of our resources will have been used up, that’s closer to what we’ll be able to sustain in the future.

Maxim: No Mad Max type scenarios then?
PBMG: I think things will be very difficult and there are many parts of the world where that sort of scenario will be close to the truth. We’re talking now maybe 160 flash points around the world where wars may and probably will be fought over water. Pakistan and India for example; both nuclear powers, both desperate for water, both already arguing about their river basins in terms of who gets the water and how much they get. Other areas too; Middle East, East Africa, China. That’s just one aspect of climate change, trying to find enough water for everyone.

Maxim: End of the world movies are, and always have been, an easy choice for Hollywood blockbusters. Do you ever watch any of those?
PBMG: I occasionally watch them but, given my academic interests, I try and avoid them like the plague. Speaking of plague, that’s another possibility!

Maxim: Fantastic. What was the last apocalyptic movie you watched?
PBMG: I think it was The Day After Tomorrow, which to be honest, was rooted in science to start with, but went wildly off the rails after about 15 minutes, but still a very enjoyable film. My favourite of late.

Maxim: That was very much about flooding as well from what we remember. If bookies start taking bets on how we all die, will flooding be a safe one?
PBMG: Well, it’s not just flooding is it? It’s a combination of roasting temperatures, massive coastal flooding, an inundation of the oceans, all sorts of other effects of global warming, not just flooding. A combination of that along with the fact that we will have no oil, resources will be depleted, we won’t be able to grow enough food, a massive water crisis, a combination of all those things. A number of people who work in this sort of area have identified 2030 as a key date for when things start to get pretty bad, when these things will start to conspire to make things difficult for our children and grandchildren.

Maxim: Are you in agreement with 2030? Our lives have started flashing before our eyes already.
PBGM: I don’t think things are particularly good at the moment and I don’t see them getting any better. But beyond that time I think we’re really going to start seeing the effects of climate change and resource depletion really hammering home.