Know It All

He's got an answer for everything, week 42

What is the greatest bet ever won?
The greatest bet ever won was unsurprisingly by a lotto winner. There are various records for lotto prize pay-outs, the largest of which have come from US lotteries. For a or bet on a ticket, lucky winners have won phenomenal pay-outs. The largest pay-out ever was 0 million for a couple of tickets in the MegaMillions lottery in 2007. However, this was an annuitized jackpot, the largest pure cash jackpot was a 0 million MegaMillions lottery in 2011. The two winning ticket holders decided to take the cash jackpot instead of the annuity, so the jackpot was reduced, but they still shared 0 million.
When it comes to horses, it would be difficult to outdo the great bet placed by Steve Whiteley in 2011. The engineer from Devon placed a £2 bet on an accumulator and randomly picked 6 horses to champion his cause. All 6 horses won; with the last horse winning with odds of 12/1 (two of the other winners had odds of 16/1). The lucky punter won £1,445,671. The odds for his win were 879,137/1; about the same odds as Katie Price winning the Nobel Prize for Literature.


What is the silliest bet ever made?
There are always news reports of silly bets being placed on such things as alien invasions, the existence of the Loch Ness monster and various actors becoming presidents, but the silliest bet ever made easily beats these. It was made by Matthew Dumbrell of London. He only wagered a reasonable amount of £10 and was offered amazing odds of 1,000,000 to 1, but unfortunately for him his choice was ultimately flawed. He bet on the world ending before 2000. Not only did he lose his bet, but exactly how was he planning on picking up his vast winnings had the world unexpectedly ended? He would have been better off spending £10 on the Psychic Hotline…


Who calculates the odds of football matches and how do they do it?
Bookmakers (sometimes known as oddsmakers) calculate the odds of football matches, often using a method known as statistical football prediction. Computer software, statistics and prediction engines can be used in combination with the bookmaker’s own experience and expertise to come up with a list or sheet of reasonable odds. A complex combination of ranking and algebra is used in these predictions.
However, there is no perfect system, no matter how much statistical software you use. Who would have predicted Liverpool beating Real Madrid 4-0 in 2009, Manchester United beating Arsenal 8-2 in 2011 or Blackpool beating Liverpool 2-1 twice in the 2010-11 season? Only a madman would… or Ian Holloway.


Could a normally clever bloke survive on betting and gambling alone? How should they go about it? How difficult is it?
It would be very difficult for a normally clever bloke to survive on just betting and gambling alone because it is impossible to control the “luck” factor, all you can do is try and minimise losses when they occur. Most systems, such as the famous martingale betting system, have intrinsic flaws. The most likely system to use for making a living through gambling is sports arbitraging. This involves finding bookmakers offering different odds for the same event outcome (either through opinion or error) and betting on each outcome through different companies in such a manner that the gambler can usually make a profit. However, as the differences in odds are usually so small, you have to wager large amounts to make a decent return.
Arbitrage betting is not illegal but is frowned upon by many bookmakers who see it as a form of cheating. However, this is one form of betting and gambling that a normally clever bloke could live by, but it takes a lot of work and understanding of the system and can often yield very small results. A clever man, to paraphrase the journalist Jeffrey Bernard, would notice that there are always more windows for placing bets in a betting shop than there are for receiving pay-outs.

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